<2024> Recycling/Reuse 기술동향 및 시장전망 (~2040)
전기차 보급이 급속히 확산됨에 따라 배터리 Recycling 및 Reuse는 지속 가능한 산업 발전을 위한 필수 요소로 자리잡고 있다. 자동차 산업의 발전 방향이 환경 규제로 인한 전동화로 확정되며, 배터리 재활용 시장은 필연적으로 성장할 수밖에 없는 구조를 갖추고 있다.
현재 Recycling 업계는 전반적인 전기차 시장 성장 둔화에 더불어, 전/후처리 recycling over capacity와 금속 가격 하락으로 어려움을 겪고 있으나, 이러한 문제는 향후 늘어나는 feedstock에 따라 완화될 것으로 보인다.
EOL 배터리와 블랙매스의 운송비, 그로인한 향후 산업구조, EU의 블랙매스 반출 금지 여부, Recycled 원료와 광산 채굴 원료의 개별 가격 체계 형성 가능성 등 최근 업계에서는 다양한 recycling 관련 이슈가 제기되고 있다.
기술적 측면에서는 저온 열처리, 리튬 선추출 공정, 전구체 솔루션, 망초 처리 기술 등 다양한 R&D가 활발히 진행되고 있으며, 향후 Direct Recycling의 상용화가 기대된다.
배터리 Recycling의 경제성은 금속 가격에 크게 의존하고 있으며, 가격 변동에도 안정적으로 사업을 지속할 수 있는 비즈니스 모델을 구축하는 것이 필수적 과제로 부상하고 있다.
본 리포트는 SNE 리서치의 글로벌 xEV 판매 실적 데이터를 바탕으로, 업계 전문가들의 깊이 있는 인사이트를 반영해 배터리 Recycling/Reuse 시장을 종합적으로 분석하였다.
리포트 목차
1. 서론 (전기차 배터리 개요)
1.1 리튬 이온 전지 ········································································ 7
1.2 EV용 리튬 이온 전지 폼팩터 ········································································ 8
2. 전기차 배터리 Recycling의 필요성
2.1 배터리 구성성분의 환경 유해성 ········································································ 10
2.2 배터리 취급 시 안전 문제 ········································································ 11
2.3 배터리 Recycling의 가치와 필요성 ········································································ 13
3. Recycling/Reuse 시장 전망
3.1 전기차 EOL 배터리 Value Chain별 이슈 ········································································ 18
3.2 Recycling/Reuse 시장 전망 방법론 ········································································ 22
3.3 폐차 발생량 전망 ········································································ 23
3.4 EOL 배터리 발생량 전망 ········································································ 30
3.5 스크랩 발생량 전망 ········································································ 36
3.6 Recycling 시장 전망 (금속무게 기준) ········································································ 43
3.7 Recycling 시장 전망 (금액규모 기준) ········································································ 53
3.8 Recycling 수급 balance ········································································ 58
3.9 Recycling 이슈 – 운송비 / EU 블랙매스 반출 / Recycling 원료 가격 ······················· 64
4. EOL 배터리 관리 법규
4.1 EOL 배터리 관리 법률의 필요성 ········································································ 68
4.2 법규 현황 및 전망_유럽 ········································································ 69
4.3 법규 현황 및 전망_미국 ········································································ 71
4.4 법규 현황 및 전망_중국 ········································································ 73
4.5 법규 현황 및 전망_일본 ········································································ 76
4.6 법규 현황 및 전망_한국 ········································································ 77
5. 배터리 Recycling 공정 개요
5.1 용어정리 ········································································ 79
5.2 EOL 배터리 Recycling 공정 개요 ········································································ 80
5.3 진단 기술 ········································································ 81
5.4 Recycling 공정 ········································································ 82
6. 배터리 Recycling 습식 공정 소개
6.1 배터리 Recycling 공정 개요 ········································································ 89
6.2 배터리 Recycling 전처리 공정 (물리적 처리) ········································································ 92
6.3 배터리 Recycling 후처리 공정 (화학적 처리) ········································································ 102
6.4 습식 공정 R&D 포인트 ········································································ 115
7. Recycling/Reuse 공정 경제성 평가
7.1 EOL 배터리 처리공정 ········································································ 118
7.2 EOL 배터리 탈거 및 방전 공정 ········································································ 119
7.3 EOL 배터리 분해 공정 ········································································ 120
7.4 EOL 배터리 성능평가 ········································································ 121
7.5 Reuse 공정비용 추정 ········································································ 125
7.6 Recycling 경제성 평가 ········································································ 128
8. Recycling/Reuse 주요 Player
8.1 한국 Recycling/Reuse Player ········································································ 130
-성일하이텍, 에코프로CnG, 포스코HY클린메탈, GS에너지머티리얼즈, 새빗켐, 굿바이카
8.2 Global Recycling/Reuse Player ········································································ 138
-Duesenfeld, Northvolt, Umicore, Li-Cycle, Redwood Materials, Ascend Elements,
Brunp, GEM, Huayou Cobalt, Sumitomo Metal Mining, 4R Energy