〈2026〉 China Hydrogen Industry Outlook: Market Transition and Growth Opportunities Through 2040 (Also Available in Chinese)
Driven by its carbon neutrality goals and the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026–2030), China’s hydrogen industry is moving beyond technology demonstration toward demand-driven scale-up.
While the first round of fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) demonstration city clusters in 2021–2025 focused on vehicle deployment and commercialization, policy priorities from 2026 onward are shifting toward an integrated hydrogen application framework encompassing production, storage, transportation, refueling, and end use. As the world’s largest hydrogen producer, with an established manufacturing base for electrolyzers and fuel cells, China is becoming a key force shaping both global hydrogen supply chains and price benchmarks.
China’s hydrogen market is expected to enter a phase of substantial scale-up after 2030, with the 2030 policy targets of 2 million tonnes of renewable hydrogen and 100,000 FCEVs in operation serving as key benchmarks. Under the base-case scenario, China’s annual green hydrogen production is projected to reach 17.6 Mt by 2040, with required electrolyzer capacity of 228.8 GW, annual FCEV sales of 933,000 units, and 1,450 hydrogen refueling stations. The pace of growth will depend largely on three variables: hydrogen prices at the point of use, refueling station throughput, and secured offtake for green hydrogen and green fuel projects.
In March 2026, China’s Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Ministry of Finance, and National Development and Reform Commission jointly announced an integrated hydrogen application demonstration program under a “1+N+X” framework. In August 2026, five city clusters were designated, covering the Beijing region, Guangdong region, Northeast China–Yangtze River Delta, Xinjiang–Sichuan–Chongqing, and Yellow River–Central Plains. Together with the target of bringing end-user hydrogen prices to RMB 25/kg or below by 2030, the National Energy Administration’s green liquid fuel and hydrogen energy demonstration initiatives, and policies supporting new energy heavy-duty trucks, these measures are broadening the policy focus from vehicle demonstrations to demand creation across industry and green fuels. However, an approximately eight-month gap in subsidies following the conclusion of the first demonstration round contributed to a 54.5% year-on-year decline in FCEV sales in the first half of 2026. Meanwhile, only a limited share of announced green fuel project capacity has reached operation or final investment decision (FID), leaving the gap between policy ambitions and implementation as a major source of uncertainty.
Corporate competitiveness is increasingly determined by cost competitiveness under varying hydrogen prices, utilization rates, and offtake conditions, alongside supply chain reliability and a proven track record in city-cluster demonstration projects. This report examines the competitive landscape and regional partnerships among fuel cell system suppliers such as SinoHytec, REFIRE, and SinoSynergy; energy and refueling infrastructure companies such as Sinopec and Houpu; and vehicle manufacturers and engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) companies. It also assesses opportunities available to Korean companies at bottlenecks in China’s supply chain using a TAM–SAM–Accessible Opportunity framework. Estimated accessible opportunities in 2040 include RMB 0.95–3.2 billion in fuel cell components and testing and validation, and RMB 1.1–2.5 billion in hydrogen storage and tanks.
This report provides a comprehensive analysis of China’s hydrogen policy transition and market outlook. It systematically covers the 15th Five-Year Plan policy framework and integrated application demonstration city clusters; hydrogen production, storage, transportation, and refueling infrastructure; the fuel cell supply chain; hydrogen mobility and industrial hydrogen and green fuel demand; regional analysis of the five city clusters; and market entry opportunities and implementation strategies for Korean companies. By examining both the current landscape and future direction of China’s hydrogen industry, the report offers practical insights to support business strategy, investment decisions, and entry into the Chinese market.
〈Table of Contents〉
0. Executive Summary
China Hydrogen at a Glance
Five Key Conclusions
Policy Timeline, 2021–2026
Accessible Market Opportunities for Korean Companies
Key Indicators to Monitor
1. China’s Hydrogen Industry: Current Landscape and Policy Transition
2. China’s Hydrogen Industry: Market Outlook
3. China’s Hydrogen Production Industry: Current Landscape and Outlook
4. China’s Hydrogen Storage, Transportation, and Refueling Industry: Current Landscape and Outlook
5. China’s Fuel Cell Technologies and Supply Chain: Current Landscape and Outlook
6. China’s Hydrogen Mobility Industry: Current Landscape and Outlook
7. China’s Industrial Hydrogen and Green Fuel Demand Transition
8. China’s Regional Hydrogen Industries and Clusters: Current Landscape and Outlook
9. Market Entry Opportunities and Implementation Strategies for Korean Companies
Appendix