<2026.1H> Global xEV Market and Battery Supply & Demand Outlook (~2035)
The North American EV market recorded a
decline in the fourth quarter, as previously anticipated.
In the fourth quarter of last year, EV (BEV
+ PHEV) registrations in the United States reached approximately 252 thousand
units, marking a 43.2% decline compared to about 440 thousand units registered
in the same period of the previous year.
The main cause was the early termination of
EV tax credit policies under the second Trump administration. Through
legislation named the “One Big Beautiful Bill,” the United States discontinued
EV tax credit benefits starting in 4Q ’25, which had originally been scheduled
to continue until the early 2030s. As a result, the global EV market, which had
been growing by more than 24% YoY in quarterly figures during ’25, recorded
only 8.4% growth in the fourth quarter.
Due to policy changes in major automotive
markets such as the United States, the EV market has become increasingly
difficult to predict. In this report, SNE Research analyzes and quantifies the
evolving dynamics of the EV market, which continues to grow despite ongoing
uncertainties. The report presents data-driven projections reflecting various
scenarios, including the possibility of renewed growth in the U.S. market
toward the end of the Trump administration.
We hope that this report, reflecting key developments in the EV market, will be
helpful to industry stakeholders.
<Contents>
1. Automotive Market Outlook
1.1 Global Automotive Market Outlook 08
1.2 Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook 09
1.3 Automotive Market Outlook by Region 10
1.4 Automotive Market Share Outlook by
Region 11
1.5 Electrification Rate Outlook for
Automobiles 12
1.5.1 Global Electrification Rate Outlook
1.5.2 Electrification Rate Outlook in North
America
1.5.3 Electrification Rate Outlook in
Europe
1.5.4 Electrification Rate Outlook in China
1.5.5 Electrification Rate Outlook in Other
Markets
2. Global Electric LV(Light Vehicle) Market
Outlook
2.1 Market Share Outlook for Electric
Passenger Vehicles (LV) 18
2.2 Market Outlook for Electric Passenger
Vehicles (LV) 19
2.3 EV Sales Outlook by Cathode Material 20
2.3.1 Global PHEV and BEV Market CAGR by
Cathode Material (2023–2035)
2.3.2 China PHEV and BEV Market CAGR by
Cathode Material (2023–2035)
2.3.3 Non-China PHEV and BEV Market CAGR by
Cathode Material (2023–2035)
2.4 Global Electric LV Major OEM Outlook 24
2.4.1 Global Major OEM Outlook
2.4.2 VW (Volkswagen)
2.4.3 Tesla
2.4.4 R-N-M (RENAULT-NISSAN)
2.4.5 HKMC (Hyundai - Kia)
2.4.6 Stellantis
2.4.7 GM
2.4.8 Toyota
2.4.9 Ford
2.4.10 Geely
2.4.11 BMW
2.4.12 Honda
2.4.13 Mercedes-Benz
2.4.14 BYD
2.4.15 SAIC
3. EV Market Outlook by Region (LV)
3.1 EV Market Outlook in the US 72
3.2 EV Market Outlook in North America
(Excluding the US) 78
3.3 EV Market Outlook in Europe 83
3.4 EV Market Outlook in China 88
3.5 EV Market Outlook in Japan 96
3.6 EV Market Outlook in Korea 101
3.7 EV Market Outlook in Asia (Excluding
Korea, China, and Japan) 106
3.8 EV Market Outlook in Other Regions
(Latin America, Oceania, Africa) 112
4. Electric Bus Market Outlook
4.1 Electric Bus Market Outlook 119
4.2 Electric Bus Market Outlook by Region 122
4.2.1 North America (Including USA)
4.2.2 Europe
4.2.3 China
4.2.4 Others (Japan + Korea + Asia +
Others)
5. Electric Truck Market Outlook
5.1 Electric Truck Market Outlook 128
5.2 Electric Truck Market Outlook by Region 130
5.2.1 North America (Including USA)
5.2.2 Europe
5.2.3 China
5.2.4 Others (Japan + Korea + Asia +
Others)
6. LIB Market and Price Outlook
6.1 Average EV Battery Capacity Outlook 136
6.2 EV Battery Price Outlook 137
6.2.1 BEV Battery Price Outlook
6.2.2 Battery Price Outlook by Cathode
Material
6.3 EV Battery Market Size Outlook 139
7. xEV Battery Market Outlook
7.1 xEV Battery Demand Outlook 141
7.2 xEV (LV) Battery Demand Outlook 142
7.3 xEV (Commercial) Battery Demand Outlook 143
7.4 xEV (Commercial – Bus) Battery Demand Outlook by Region 144
7.5 xEV (Commercial – Truck) Battery Demand
Outlook by Region 145
7.6 xEV Battery Demand Outlook by Region 146
7.7 xEV Battery Demand Outlook by Cathode
Material 148
8. Battery Demand Outlook by OEM
8.1 Global Battery Demand Outlook by OEM
(LV) 152
8.1.1 VW(VolksWagen)
8.1.2 Tesla
8.1.3 R-N-M (RENAULT-NISSAN)
8.1.4 HKMC (Hyundai - Kia)
8.1.5 Stellantis
8.1.6 GM
8.1.7 Toyota
8.1.8 Ford
8.1.9 Geely
8.1.10 BMW
8.1.11 Honda
8.1.12 Mercedes-Benz
8.1.13 BYD
8.1.14 SAIC
8.1.15 Major OEM Battery Demand Outlook
8.2 Battery Demand Outlook by OEM in China 183
8.2.1 Changan
8.2.2 Greatwall
8.2.3 Chery
8.2.4 BAIC
8.2.5 GAC
8.2.6 Dongfeng
8.2.7 FAW
8.2.8 Seres (Sokon, Huawei)
8.2.9 Chinese Startup (Li-Aito/Nio/Leapmotors/Xpeng/Hozon/Xiaomi)
8.2.10 Battery Demand Outlook for Chinese
OEMs
9. Supply Outlook by LIB Manufacturer
9.1 Battery Supply Outlook 195
9.1.1 Based on Design Capa
9.1.2 Production Capa Outlook for Major
Battery Manufacturers
9.1.3 Actual Battery Supply Outlook (Based
on Actual Production Capa)
9.2 Battery Supply Outlook by Production
Region 198
9.2.1 Based on Actual Production Capa
9.3 Outlook for Korean Manufacturers (Based
on Actual Production Capa) 199
9.3.1 Production Capa of Korean Battery
Manufacturers
9.3.2 Regional Production Capa of Korean
Battery Manufacturers
9.3.3 Korean Battery Manufacturers'
Production Capa by Company and Region
9.4 Outlook for Japanese Manufacturers
(Based on Actual Production Capa) 202
9.4.1 Production Capa of Japanese Battery
Manufacturers
9.4.2 Regional Production Capa of Japanese
Battery Manufacturers
9.4.3 Production Capa of Japanese Battery
Manufacturers by Company and Region
9.5 Outlook for Chinese Manufacturers
(Based on Actual Production Capa) 205
9.5.1 Production Capa of Chinese Battery
Manufacturers
9.5.2 Regional Production Capa of Chinese
Battery Manufacturers
9.5.3 Chinese Battery Manufacturers'
Production Capa by Company and Region
9.6 Outlook for European Manufacturers
(Based on Actual Production Capa) 208
9.6.1 Production Capa of European Battery
Manufacturers
9.6.2 Regional Production Capa of European
Battery Manufacturers
9.6.3 European Battery Manufacturers'
Production Capa by Company and Region
9.7 Outlook for U.S. Manufacturers (Based
on Actual Production Capa) 211
9.7.1 Production Capa of U.S. Battery
Manufacturers
9.7.2U.S. Battery Manufacturers' Production
Capa by Company and Region
10. Mid-to-Long-Term Battery Supply and
Demand Outlook
10.1 Global Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and
Demand Outlook 214
10.2 Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and Demand
Outlook in China 215
10.3 Global Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and
Demand Outlook (Excluding China) 216
10.4 Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and Demand
Outlook in Europe 217
10.5 Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and Demand
Outlook in North America 218
Appendix
1. Global Automotive Regulations and EV
Promotion Policies 220
2. EV Sales Targets of Major Automotive
Manufacturers 271
3. Trends of Major Automotive Manufacturers 274