2026 Lithium Metal Report (~2035)
From the
2020s onward, lithium prices surged to over CNY 560,000 per ton as rapid growth
in EV battery demand, aggressive lithium stockpiling led by China, and
constrained supply capacity converged. However, from 2023 onward, lithium
prices fell sharply as excessive investment and inventories, order adjustments
by automakers and battery manufacturers, and the ramp-up of some new projects
occurred simultaneously. While the current lithium market remains at levels
below past peaks, prices are showing a renewed upward trend aligned with demand
at adjusted price levels.
During
the period of price adjustment, lithium companies underwent significant
changes. High-cost spodumene mines in Australia reduced output or shifted to
care-and-maintenance, while previously planned expansions and new projects were
postponed or slowed.
However,
demand for electric vehicles and batteries is still expected to continue
increasing. While this market adjustment process may temporarily reduce supply
and help cushion price declines in the short term, it could also act as a
constraint on supply during the next demand recovery phase. In particular, if
delays in new projects persist, the possibility of long-term lithium supply
shortages should be taken into account. Accordingly, it will be necessary to
secure raw material supply sources in advance through measures such as
diversifying lithium production regions and accelerating lithium recycling.
This
report systematically presents an overview of the lithium industry, beginning
with fundamental concepts, followed by lithium products and production
technologies, the current status of DLE technologies, and outlooks for the
lithium industry, including demand, supply, and pricing. In addition, it
reviews changes in contract structures such as pricing mechanisms in long-term
lithium supply agreements, analyzes supply risks and policy environments across
major lithium-producing regions, and includes individual analyses of key
lithium mining companies. In particular, by presenting supply–demand outlooks
alongside scenarios incorporating recycled lithium, the report seeks to derive
strategic implications for future lithium supply stability. We hope this report
serves as a useful reference for understanding structural changes in the
lithium market and the associated strategic implications.
< Contents
>
1. LIB Market Outlook
1.1
Global EV Battery Market Trends 12
1.2
Global EV Demand Outlook 16
1.3
Global LIB Demand Outlook 17
1.4
Global Cathode Material Demand Outlook 18
2. Lithium Metal Outlook
2.1
Overview of Lithium Minerals 20
2.2
Types of Lithium Occurrence 21
2.3
Global Lithium Reserves Status 22
2.4
Lithium Production Technologies 23
2.4.1
Brine Type
2.4.2
Hard Rock Type
2.4.3
Clay Type
2.4.4
Direct Lithium Extraction (DLE)
2.5
Classification by Lithium Product Type 29
3. Direct Lithium Extraction Technology (DLE)
3.1
Overview of DLE Technology 35
3.2
Adsorption Method 42
3.3
Electrochemical Method 46
3.4
Solvent Extraction Method 47
3.5
Membrane Separation Method 48
3.6
Overview of DLE Companies 51
4. Industry Trends in Major Lithium-Producing Countries
4.1
Australia 59
4.2
China 66
4.3
Chile 75
4.4
Argentina 79
4.5
Bolivia 81
4.6
Brazil 82
4.7
Zimbabwe 84
5. Global Lithium Supply and Demand Outlook (2024–2035)
5.1
Global Lithium Consumption 86
5.2
Global Battery Lithium Demand Outlook 87
5.3
Global Lithium Demand Outlook 88
5.4
Global Lithium Supply Outlook 89
5.5
Lithium Raw Material Supply–Demand Balance 92
5.6
Lithium Supply–Demand Scenarios 93
5.6.1
Supply Shortage Case
5.6.2
Additional Recycled Lithium Case
5.7
Regional Lithium Supply Outlook 96
5.7.1
Australia
5.7.2
China
5.7.3
Latin America
5.7.4
North America
5.7.5
Europe
5.7.6
Africa
6. Lithium Supply Contracts and Price Outlook
6.1
Long-Term Lithium Supply Contracts 103
6.2
Price Trends of Key Battery Raw Materials 105
6.3
Lithium Price Trends 106
6.4
Lithium Price Outlook Based on Supply and Demand 107
7. Global Lithium Policy Trends
7.1
Key Critical Mineral Policies by Country (2024–2025) 114
7.2
Australia 115
7.3
China 117
7.4
Latin America 120
7.4.1
Chile
7.4.2
Argentina
7.4.3
Bolivia
7.4.4
Brazil
7.4.5
Mexico
7.5
Europe 128
7.6
United States 132
8. Lithium Mining Company Analysis
8.1
Albemarle 134
8.2
SQM 137
8.3
Rio Tinto 141
8.4
Pilbara Minerals 144
8.5
Tianqi Lithium 147
8.6
Ganfeng Lithium 151
8.7
POSCO Group 154