<2025.2H> Global xEV Market and Battery Supply & Demand Outlook (~2035)
At the end of last year, Trump returned to
office as the new President of the United States.
Since his candidacy, Trump had been highly
critical of electric vehicle (EV) adoption policies. He even went so far as to
label eco-friendly energy policies centered on EVs as a “Green New Scam”.
As time passed, in May, resolutions passed
by the Republican-controlled House and Senate turned Trump’s policy direction
into reality.
In the Senate, a resolution was passed to
prohibit state-level policies—led by California—that promote the transition to
eco-friendly vehicles through vehicle emission regulations.
The House passed a bill called the “One Big
Beautiful Bill.” This bill aimed to roll back incentives such as tax credits
included in the IRA enacted under the previous Biden administration. As a
result, the termination date of the battery cell manufacturing subsidies was
moved up by one year.
In addition, the $7,500 tax credit for EVs
that meet the rules of origin was shortened by six years compared to the
original plan. As a result, significant constraints emerged for the growth of
the U.S. EV market. Korean LIB companies that had already entered the U.S. and
established EV-use LIB production lines are now pursuing an alternative
strategy of repurposing these lines for ESS-use LIB production to target the
ESS market.
The concept of Foreign Entity of Concern
(FEoC) has been replaced with a stronger standard called PFE (Prohibited
Foreign Entity). As a result, the activities of Chinese companies in the U.S.
market are expected to face stronger restrictions. However, due to the early
termination of EV tax credits in the United States, growth in the North
American EV market is not expected to be easy in the near term.
This report forecasts the growth trajectory
of the electric vehicle market, which continues to move steadily even amid such
volatile circumstances. Although the forecast was made before the passage of
the bills in the U.S. Senate and House, it should still be sufficient to
illustrate the overall direction of the market.
We hope that this report—reflecting the key developments in the electric
vehicle market—will be helpful to industry stakeholders.
Contents
1. Automotive Market Outlook
1.1 Global Automotive Market Outlook 08
1.2 Commercial Vehicle Market Outlook 09
1.3 Automotive Market Outlook by Region 10
1.4 Automotive Market Share Outlook by
Region 11
1.5 Electrification Rate Outlook for
Automobiles 12
1.5.1 Global Electrification Rate Outlook
1.5.2 Electrification Rate Outlook in North
America
1.5.3 Electrification Rate Outlook in
Europe
1.5.4 Electrification Rate Outlook in China
1.5.5 Electrification Rate Outlook in Other
Markets
2. Global Electric LV(Light Vehicle)
Market Outlook
2.1 Market Share Outlook for Electric
Passenger Vehicles (LV) 18
2.2 Market Outlook for Electric Passenger
Vehicles (LV) 19
2.3 EV Sales Outlook by Cathode Material 20
2.3.1 Global PHEV and BEV Market CAGR by
Cathode Material (2023–2035)
2.3.2 China PHEV and BEV Market CAGR by
Cathode Material (2023–2035)
2.3.3 Non-China PHEV and BEV Market CAGR by
Cathode Material (2023–2035)
2.4 Global Electric LV Major OEM Outlook 24
2.4.1 Global Major OEM Outlook
2.4.2 VW(VolksWagen)
2.4.3 Tesla
2.4.4 R-N-M (RENAULT-NISSAN)
2.4.5 HKMC (Hyundai - Kia)
2.4.6 Stellantis
2.4.7 GM
2.4.8 Toyota
2.4.9 Ford
2.4.10 Geely
2.4.11 BMW
2.4.12 Honda
2.4.13 Mercedes-Benz
2.4.14 BYD
2.4.15 SAIC
3. EV Market Outlook by Region (LV)
3.1 EV Market Outlook in the US 69
3.2 EV Market Outlook in North America
(Excluding the US) 75
3.3 EV Market Outlook in Europe 80
3.4 EV Market Outlook in China 85
3.5 EV Market Outlook in Japan 93
3.6 EV Market Outlook in Korea 98
3.7 EV Market Outlook in Asia (Excluding
Korea, China, and Japan) 103
3.8 EV Market Outlook in Other Regions
(Latin America, Oceania, Middle East, Africa) 109
4. Electric Bus Market Outlook
4.1 Electric Bus Market Outlook 116
4.2 Electric Bus Market Outlook by Region 119
4.2.1 North America (Including USA)
4.2.2 Europe
4.2.3 China
4.2.4 Others
(Japan + Korea + Asia + Others)
5. Electric Truck Market Outlook
5.1 Electric Truck Market Outlook 125
5.2 Electric Truck Market Outlook by Region 127
5.2.1 North America (Including USA)
5.2.2 Europe
5.2.3 China
5.2.4 Others (Japan + Korea + Asia +
Others)
6. LIB Market and Price Outlook
6.1 Average EV Battery Capacity Outlook 133
6.2 EV Battery Price Outlook 134
6.2.1 Battery Price Outlook for EV
Applications
6.2.2 Battery Price Outlook by Cathode
Material
6.3 EV Battery Market Size Outlook 136
7. xEV Battery Market Outlook
7.1 xEV Battery Demand Outlook 138
7.2 xEV (LV) Battery Demand Outlook 139
7.3 xEV (Commercial) Battery Demand Outlook 140
7.4 xEV (Commercial – Bus)
Battery Demand Outlook by Region 141
7.5 xEV (Commercial – Truck)
Battery Demand Outlook by Region 142
7.6 xEV Battery Demand Outlook by Region 143
7.7 xEV Battery Demand Outlook by Cathode
Material 145
8. Battery Demand Outlook by OEM (LV)
8.1 Global Battery Demand Outlook by OEM
(LV) 149
8.1.1 VW(VolksWagen)
8.1.2 Tesla
8.1.3 R-N-M (RENAULT-NISSAN)
8.1.4 HKMC (Hyundai - Kia)
8.1.5 Stellantis
8.1.6 GM
8.1.7 Toyota
8.1.8 Ford
8.1.9 Geely
8.1.10 BMW
8.1.11 Honda
8.1.12 Mercedes-Benz
8.1.13 BYD
8.1.14 SAIC
8.1.15 Summary of Battery Demand Outlook
for Major OEMs
8.2 Battery Demand Outlook by OEM in China 180
8.2.1 Changan
8.2.2 Greatwall
8.2.3 Chery
8.2.4 BAIC
8.2.5 GAC
8.2.6 Dongfeng
8.2.7 FAW
8.2.8 Seres (Sokon, Huawei)
8.2.9 Chinese Startup
(Li-Aito/Nio/Leapmotors/Xpeng/Hozon/Xiaomi)
8.2.10 Summary of Battery Demand Outlook
for Chinese OEMs
9. Supply Outlook by LIB Manufacturer
9.1 Battery Supply Outlook 192
9.1.1 Based on Design Capacity
9.1.2 Supply Outlook for Major Battery
Manufacturers
9.1.3 Actual Battery Supply Outlook (Based
on Actual Production Capacity)
9.2 Battery Supply Outlook by Production
Region 195
9.2.1 Based on Actual Production Capacity
9.3 Outlook for Korean Manufacturers (Based
on Actual Production Capacity) 196
9.3.1 Production Capacity of Korean
Manufacturers
9.3.2 Regional Production Capacity of
Korean Manufacturers
9.3.3 Production Capacity by Company and
Region for Korean Manufacturers
9.4 Outlook for Japanese Manufacturers
(Based on Actual Production Capacity) 199
9.4.1 Production Capacity of Japanese
Manufacturers
9.4.2 Regional Production Capacity of
Japanese Manufacturers
9.4.3 Production Capacity by Company and
Region for Japanese Manufacturers
9.5 Outlook for Chinese Manufacturers
(Based on Actual Production Capacity) 202
9.5.1 Production Capacity of Chinese
Manufacturers
9.5.2 Regional Production Capacity of
Chinese Manufacturers
9.5.3 Production Capacity by Company and
Region for Chinese Manufacturers
9.6 Outlook for European Manufacturers
(Based on Actual Production Capacity) 205
9.6.1 Production Capacity of European
Manufacturers
9.6.2 Regional Production Capacity of
European Manufacturers
9.6.3 Production Capacity by Company and
Region for European Manufacturers
9.7 Outlook for U.S. Manufacturers (Based
on Actual Production Capacity) 208
9.7.1 Production Capacity of U.S.
Manufacturers
9.7.2 Regional Production Capacity of U.S.
Manufacturers
9.7.3 Production Capacity by Company and
Region for U.S. Manufacturers
10. Mid-to-Long-Term Battery Supply and
Demand Outlook
10.1 Global Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and
Demand Outlook 211
10.2 Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and Demand
Outlook in China 212
10.3 Global Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and
Demand Outlook (Excluding China) 213
10.4 Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and Demand
Outlook in Europe 214
10.5 Mid-to-Long-Term Supply and Demand
Outlook in North America 215
Appendix
1. Global Automotive Regulations and EV
Promotion Policies 217
2. EV Sales Targets of Major Automotive
Manufacturers 263
3. Trends of Major Automotive Manufacturers 266
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