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Battery, Battery Materials, EV

 <2024> 4680 Battery Technology Development Trend and Outlook  

 

 

 

Tesla acquired Maxwell Technologies for the dry battery electrode process (DBE) used in the production of large cylindrical batteries like the 4680. The dry electrode process is characterized by low energy requirements for drying, a smaller factory footprint for the drying process, and lower production costs. If the dry coating process is applied to both electrodes, it could lead to significant cost reductions, creating a win-win situation for EV manufacturers and production companies. The dry electrode process is one of the manufacturing technologies employed by Tesla for the 4680 battery, and with the implementation of various technologies for 4680 production, an overall cost reduction of 56% is anticipated.

 

Tesla is currently producing 4680 cells with dry-coated electrodes at the Gigafactory in Texas Austin, where Model Y and Cybertruck are being manufactured. According to available information, Tesla has not yet completed the dry coating process on the scale required to rapidly produce 4680 cells to meet production targets. However, several companies, including Panasonic, LG, CATL, EVE, BAK, SVOLT, and others, have entered the development and mass production of 4680 cells. The 4680 trend is gaining momentum globally, with announcements from BMW, Daimler, Apple, Lucid, Rivian, Xiaopeng, NIO, FAW, JAC Motors, and others regarding the adoption of 4680 batteries.

 

 According to the forecasts from SNE Research, the demand for xEV 4680 cells is projected to be approximately 72 GWh by the year 2025 and around 650 GWh by the year 2030. For Tesla, it is estimated to be around 80 GWh by the year 2025, for BMW around 59 GWh, and for other companies, approximately 44 GWh by the year 2025.

 

Despite the challenges of the dry coating process, there are several reasons for the adoption of the 4680 cells. Below are listed the outstanding advantages of the 4680 cells:

 

(1)High energy density: The capacity of the 4680 cells is five times that of the 2170 cells, with only a change in external dimensions. Additionally, by utilizing a Si/C (Silicon/Carbon) anode, it is possible to achieve a 10% increase in energy density. Furthermore, with the use of a Si/C anode, the energy density can be further increased by up to 20%, reaching beyond 300 Wh/kg.

 

(2)Safety: The "cylindrical" design is considered the most robust solution for thermal runaway, a critical safety issue associated with heat propagation within battery packs. Recent battery incidents have all been attributed to thermal runaway in specific battery cells within the pack, leading to the generation of a significant amount of heat that, in turn, heats up surrounding battery cells, resulting in the propagation of thermal runaway.

 

However, cylindrical batteries have a smaller cell capacity, and the energy released due to thermal runaway in a single battery is lower, reducing the likelihood of propagation compared to prismatic and pouch-shaped batteries. The curvature of the cylindrical design somewhat limits the heat transfer between batteries. In other words, even when cylindrical batteries are in complete contact due to their curved surfaces, there is still a significant gap, which somewhat restricts the heat transfer between batteries.

 

(3)Fast charging performance: The 4680 battery undergoes structural changes to enhance its charging speed, adapting to the high-speed charging requirements of the material system. Additionally, it incorporates an "All flag" design, further contributing to the acceleration of charging speeds.

 

(4)High production efficiency → Low cost

Cylindrical batteries were the first commercially available lithium-ion batteries and have the most mature production processes. This is reflected in higher assembly efficiency compared to prismatic and pouch-shaped batteries. While the current production efficiency of the 4680 is unknown, the characteristics of cylindrical batteries, with their concentric winding design, determine the production speed. Despite larger cylindrical batteries having a lower production speed than smaller ones, they are still much faster than prismatic and pouch-shaped batteries. The production rate for 1865/2170 batteries is typically around 200PPM (200 batteries /minute). Meanwhile, for prismatic batteries with a capacity below 200Ah, the rate is around 10-12PPM, and for larger prismatic batteries with a capacity exceeding 200Ah, it's around 10PPM. The production efficiency of pouch-shaped batteries is even lower.

 

(5)Scaling up → Reduced BMS complexity

For Tesla, the predominantly smaller capacity of cylindrical battery cells meant that achieving specific power performance required an enormous total number of cells. For instance, 7000+ cells of the 18650 type or 4000+ cells of the 2170 type were needed. This high cell count posed significant challenges in terms of thermal management for the battery system. Consequently, many automakers were discouraged from adopting cylindrical batteries. However, with the advent of the 4680 era, the required number of battery cells has decreased to 960-1360 cells. The reduced cell count implies improved space utilization in the pack and a substantial simplification of the required Battery Management System (BMS), addressing issues related to heat dissipation in large cylindrical batteries.

 

In this report, SNE Research systematically organizes information from various sources, including presentations from each company related to the 4680, scattered data from disassembly and performance tests, and reviews of key papers. Through this comprehensive approach, the report analyzes the practical effects and performance improvements of the 4680 introduction. Furthermore, by referencing data from external research institutions, our report aims to assist readers in understanding the outlook and scale of the large cylindrical battery market.

 

Additionally, we provides an overview of the current status and key products of 4680 manufacturers. It also highlights the scale of Gigafactory facilities and indicates the correlation between the production volume and quantity of Cybertruck, offering intriguing insights into the manufacturability of the 4680. The goal is to provide comprehensive insights to researchers and individuals interested in this field.

 

 

The Strong Point of this report is as below:

 

 

 Summarizing the developmental trends and information related to the 4680 for an overall understanding and ease of comprehension.

 

 In-depth analysis and summarization of the disassembly reports for 4680 cells and packs to enhance understanding.

 

 Assessing the market and production outlook for 4680 batteries to understand market size and growth rates.

 

 Detailed analysis of materials and technologies applied to the 4680 through the examination of academic papers.

 

 

 

 

 

 - Contents -

 

1. 4680 Cylindrical Battery Overview 12

1.1. Tesla Battery Day Analysis 14

1.2. Battery Day Summary and Key Findings 15

1.3. Tesla Battery Cell Design 16

1.4. Tesla Battery Cell Manufacturing Process 18

1.4.1. Coating 19

1.4.2. Winding 20

1.4.3. Assembly 20

1.4.4. Formation 20

1.5. Tesla Si-anode 21

1.6. Tesla Hi-Ni Cathode 22

1.7. Tesla Cell – Vehicle Integration 23

1.8. Tesla Cell Cost Improvement 24

1.9. Tesla 4680 Battery Development 25

1.9.1. Development History 25

1.9.2. Battery Specification 26

1.9.3. Battery-adopted Tesla EV 27

1.9.4. Battery Supplier 27

1.9.5. Battery Production Timing 28

1.10. 46xx Battery Roadmap 29

1.10.1. New 46xx Cell Design 29

1.10.2. New 46xx Cell Production 32

 

2. 4680 Battery Development Trend 34

2.1. Increased Demand for Cost Reduction and Efficiency 34

2.2. Demanding Safety Requirements 34

2.3. Fast Charging as Future Trend 38

2.4. Battery Makers Competition for Market Entrance 38

2.5. Tesla Development Trend 41

2.5.1. 4680 Sales Volume and Production Capacity 41

2.5.2. 4680 Demand Calculation 42

2.6. Global OEMs’ Layout Acceleration 44

2.7. 46xx Battery Detailed Specification by Maker 46

 

3. 4680 Battery Detailed Technology 54

3.1. Cathode 54

3.1.1. Application of Ultra High Nickel 54

3.1.2. Establishment of Production Capacity 56

3.1.3. Upgrade of Production Technology 57

3.2. Anode 59

3.2.1. Silicon-based Development 59

3.2.2. Silicon-based Development Timeline 60

3.2.3. Si-anode Modification 63

3.2.4. Acceleration of Si-anode Industrialization 68

3.3. Other Battery Materials 70

3.3.1. SWCNT Conductive Material 70

3.3.2. Steel Battery Can 74

3.3.3. Al Battery Can 76

3.3.3.1. Al housing Cell Design Concept 81

3.3.3.2. 46xx Large-size Cylindrical Cell 83

3.3.3.3. 46xx Jelly Roll Concept 84

3.3.3.4. 46xx Jelly Roll Heat Transfer and Distribution 84

3.3.3.5. 46xx Jelly Roll Heat Simulation 85

3.3.3.6. 46xx Jelly Roll Cooling Improvement 86

3.4. Production Process 88

3.4.1. 4680 Battery Production Process Technology 88

3.4.2. 4680 Production Process Differentiation 91

3.4.2.1. Dry Electrode Coating 91

3.4.2.2. Dry Process Examples 94

3.4.2.3. Electrode and Tab Integrated Cutting 95

3.4.2.4. Difficulty of Laser Welding 97

3.4.2.5. Integrated Die casting and CTC 99

 

4. Tesla 4680 Battery Pack Disassembly 103

4.1. Overview 103

4.2. Battery Disassembly and Analysis 103

4.3. Tesla 4680 Battery Cell, Pack, and Engineering Analysis 112

4.3.1. Tesla 4680 Battery Design Data 112

4.3.2. Pack Structure (Cell Direction) 122

4.3.3. Electricity Connection with Each Cell 123

4.3.4. Suggested Pack Assembly Method 125

4.3.5. Model 3 Pack Analysis 126

4.3.5.1. Pack Analysis Result (Summary) 126

4.3.5.2. Details of Heat Release 129

4.3.6. Model 3 Battery Current Collector 131

 

5. Tesla 4680 Battery Cell Disassembly and Characteristics 135

5.1. Summary 135

5.2. Overview 135

5.3. Previous Studies 136

5.4. Detailed Analysis 137

5.5. Specific Experiment 137

5.5.1. Test Cell Overview 137

5.5.2. Cell Disassembly and Substance Extraction 138

5.5.3. Structure and Element Analysis 142

5.5.4. 3 Electrode Analysis 143

5.5.5. Electrical Characteristics 143

5.5.6. Thermal investigation· 145

5.6. Result and Consideration 145

5.6.1. Cell and Jelly roll Structure 145

5.6.2. Electrode Design 147

5.6.3. Material Characteristics 149

5.6.4. 3 Electrode Analysis 152

5.6.5. Capacity and Impedance Analysis 153

5.6.6. Similar OCV, DVA and ICA Analysis 154

5.6.7. HPPC Analysis 156

5.6.8. Thermal Characteristics Analysis 156

5.7. Conclusion 158

 

6. Technologies for Success of 4680 Battery 163

6.1. Multi(all) Tab Technology 163

6.2. Tab Welding Technology 171

6.3. Cooling Technology 176

 

7. 4680 Battery Energy Density Improvement and Cost Down 183

7.1. Overview 183

7.2. Energy Density ↑/ Fast Charging ↑/ Cost ↓ 184

7.2.1. Blade Battery / High-Ni Prismatic Battery Comparison 184

7.2.2. Increase of Fast Charging Rate 186

7.2.3. Production Improvement and Cost Down with Dry Electrode (DBE) 188

7.3. High-Concentration Electrolyte Adoption 191

7.3.1. Decrease of 4680 Electrolyte Q’ty / GWh 191

7.3.2. High-Concentration Electrolyte and LiFSI Addition 195

7.3.3. Fluorine FEC Addition 200

7.4. 4680 Electrolyte Major Players 202

 

8. 4680 Battery Heat Problem Prediction and Mitigation Solutions 204

8.1. Experiment Summary 204

8.2. Experiment Method 204

8.3. Heat Transfer Model Equation 206

8.4. Experiment Result and Discussion 207

8.5. Experiment Conclusion 210

 

9. Cylindrical LIB Cell Design, Characteristics and Manufacturing 212

9.1. Overview 212

9.2. Experiment Material and Method 214

9.2.1. Cell Design 214

9.2.2. Cell Properties 217

9.2.3. Cell Energy Density 217

9.2.4. Cell Impedance 218

9.2.5. Cell Temperature 218

9.3. Experiment Result and Consideration 219

9.3.1. Cylindrical LIB Cell Design 219

9.3.2. Jelly Roll Design 221

9.3.2.1. Geometry 221

9.3.3. Tab Design 223

9.3.4. Cell Properties 227

9.3.4.1. Cell Energy Density 227

9.3.4.2. Cell Resistance 228

9.3.4.3. Cell Thermal Behavior 229

9.3.5. Jelly Roll Manufacturing 231

9.4. Experiment Conclusion 234

 

10. Cell size and Housing Material and their Influences of Tabless Cylindrical LIB Cell 235

10.1. Overall Overview 235

10.2. Experiment 236

10.2.1. Reference cell 236

10.2.2. Cell Modeling 237

10.2.2.1. Cell Size and Geometric Model 237

10.2.2.2. Jelly Roll Electrode Layer 237

10.2.2.3. Hollow core 237

10.2.2.4. Tabless Design 237

10.2.3. Cell Housing 238

10.2.4. Thermal – Electrical – Electrochemical Framework 238

10.2.4.1. Boundary Conditions and Discretization 239

10.3. Experiment Result and Discussion 239

10.3.1. Energy Density 239

10.3.1.1. Influence of Cell Diameter 239

10.3.1.2. Influence of Cell Height 241

10.3.1.3. Influence of Housing Material 241

10.3.2. Fast Charging Performance 242

10.3.2.1. Realization of Heat Transfer Coefficient Control Algorithm 242

10.3.2.2. Influence of Cell Height and Housing Material with Axial Cooling 243

10.3.2.3. Influence of Cell Diameter and Housing Material with Axial Cooling 246

10.3.2.4. Influence of Tab Design and Scaling of Series Resistance 250

10.3.2.5. Influence of Cell Size and Housing Material on Fast Charging 252

10.4. Experiment Conclusion 253

 

11. 4680 Cell Maker and Car OEMs Current Status 256

11.1. Tesla 256

11.2. Panasonic 258

11.3. LGES 260

11.4. SDI 261

11.5. EVE 261

11.6. BAK 266

11.7. CATL 266

11.8. Guoxuan Hi-TECH 268

11.9. SVOLT 269

11.10. CALB 270

11.11. Envision AESC 271

11.12. LISHEN 273

11.13. Easpring 274

11.14. Kumyang 275

11.15. BMW 276

11.16. Rimac 280

 

 

 

 

12. Tesla 4680 Battery Patent Analysis 281

12.1. Tabless Electrode Battery (PTC/US2019/059691) 281

12.2. Tabless Energy Storage Devices and their Manufacturing Methods (PTC/US2021/050992) 285

12.3. Dry Process Patent 1(Inclusion of particulate nonfibrification binder: US11545666 B2) 294

12.4. Dry Process Patent 2 (Compositions and methods for passivation of electrode binders: US11545667 B2) 298

 

13. 4680 Battery Market Outlook 301

13.1. Overall Market Outlook 301

13.2. 4680 Major Materials Market Outlook 306

13.2.1. Si-based Anode 306

13.2.2. Hi-Ni Ternary Cathode 310

13.2.3. LiFSI 312

13.2.4. Composite Copper Foil 314

13.2.5. PVDF Binder 316

13.2.6. CNT Conductor 316

13.2.7. Laser Welding Equipment 317

13.2.8. Housing CAN 318

13.2.9. Ni plated CAN 319

13.3. 4680 Demand Outlook and Capacity Outlook 321

 

14. Tesla 4680 Cell Production Outlook 325

14.1. 4680 Outlook by Consulting Company 325

14.2. Tesla/BMW 4680 Demand Outlook 325

14.3. Tesla 4680 Cell for Cybertruck Production Outlook 326

14.3.1. 4680 Giga Texas Production Estimates 326

14.3.2. 4680 Cell Production Capacity vs. Cybertruck Production Volume (Units) 327

14.3.3. 4680 Cell Annual Capacity vs. Daily Production Volume 328

14.3.4. 4680 Cell Production Capacity vs. Production Time Change Trend 328

14.3.5. Tesla Giga Factory P/P Line Major Processes 329